Zimbabwe Decides (2018 Polls): Prognosis through the vision of my prism.

MDC-T President Nelson Chamisa and Emmerson Mnangagwa
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The better “crook” will romp home in the 2018 Zimbabwe national plebiscite.”Cetris Paribus ” though.

By Bernard Muchemwa

ED is abated by the power of incumbency and the well girded state apparatus.His new dispensation mantra has gained unimaginable traction, caught the opposition pants down and mopping up those voters who were now idle and frustrated with the punishing politics of the stomach, Africa’s nauseating bane.

Chamisa will have to use is oratory skills , stage flamboyancy and the generational change quest to theatre.

Both parties ZANU and the MDC have gone through seismic events which threaten to rip them asunder. He who will meander skillfully out of these vicissitudes will survive.

As for ED , he has “General Patronage” to thank.The grassroots from the infamous Cabal will trudge back unwittingly and wearily though and help to galvanize the ” Revolutionary Party”.

Chamisa looks overwhelmed by the daunting task of mending the chasm created by his brazen power grab. But not to be outdone, the boy has an amazing charm, which threatens to shake the Zimbabwean political foundation to the core.

But the “better crook” will pick the worm as I foresee a tight race. So tight that even the sanguine will be left dumbfounded.

Now it is who , who.will be able to manipulate his “raw materials” , the masses who are both malleable and ductile , who will win.

Will Chamisa translate his brilliant showboating on the podium and behind the mick to effective use. He has a large swarm of urban youth baying for a future devoid of Zanu PF their identified nemesis. I can bet my last $, Humanikwa was teeming with urban illegal street vendors, Chamisa’s fortress and their peers both male and female who acknowledge though , the Liberation struggle as a necessary struggle to emancipate the African who was muzzled and burdened with indignity. Alas they believe every generation has it’s own unique grievances and the Liberation stalwarts had theirs and were able to address theirs through a collective bitter struggle couched in the vicious guerilla warfare. A war many want to shove off their minds due to its horrendous consequences.

Now they say, it is time to address their generation’s grievances, a plethora of them, of which enumeration of them might produce manuscripts thicker than Das Kapital Vol 3 by Marx and Angels.

ED can counter through the rural youth and Makorokoza who find Zanu PF’s policies towards them amiable.

Chamisa might be hoist by his on petard. The Khupe issue might come back to haunt him badly if he does not handle it tactifully and strategically . The way out of this is an extra ordinary congress to formalize his position. Probably he has no power outside the youth wing . Maybe he has no support in the women’s league nor men’s. Maybe he has not forgotten the last Congress when the better ” crook” outsmarted him out of the SG post.

Now it is time for each candidate to transverse the breadth and length of the country selling policies some of them might be heroic though like getting $15Bln dollars from Trump. Beware of debris “vachinunga nhema”.

Each must focus more on where they have thier power base and lick up all voters including convincing the Thomases and the inertia of this world. This is a game of numbers and none can’t afford to waste precious time, energy and money on voters who will always give them a middle finger. It is energy sapping when you really need it to take you to the wire.

One thing which people need to be careful not to lure them into utopia are crowds. They are misleading . Both parties can garner huge crowds , but we need to understand the dialectics of elections and crowds .Those crowds can be compartmentalized into members of political parties who are in the structures from cell , branch, district, province and national and please excuse my semantics. Then we have ordinary card carrying members and those who might like the party at an juncture. The phantom is the voter who is fluid . The voter is the deciding factor. The Zimbabwean voter does not talk nor attend rallies. He can be deceptive and can give you a false hope. Beware of the voter and both protagonists must focus on this class.

May the “best trickster win”

ED has an edge but complacency might consign him to the dust heap of history.
Chamisa Will regain most the urban votes lost in 2013 through the youth , proletarian working class and the unemployed.
But will he upset the apple cart. Only time will tell as he has been buoyed by the urban youth who chanted his name hysterically during the doyen MRT’s funeral parades. But he better be warned that the age narrative might not stick.It might backfire sensationally.

ED is battle hardened , an ocean of experience and his lack of stage work is compensated by shrewd and ruthless scheming which leaves nothing to chance.Still waters run deep and his really run deep.

Bernard Muchemwa is a Chartered Accountant and Social Commentator based in Sydney Australia writing in his own personal capacity.