
BERLIN,– Germany is set to reduce its military aid to Ukraine by half next year, a move that coincides with concerns about potential changes in US support should Republican candidate Donald Trump return to the White House. According to a draft of the 2025 budget seen by Reuters, Germany’s aid to Ukraine will be cut from around 8 billion euros in 2024 to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion) in 2025.
The German government is optimistic that Ukraine will be able to meet most of its military needs with the $50 billion in loans derived from frozen Russian assets, as agreed by the Group of Seven (G7). It is expected that these funds, earmarked for armaments, may not be fully utilized.
“Ukraine’s financing is secured for the foreseeable future thanks to European instruments and the G7 loans,” German Finance Minister Christian Lindner stated at a news conference on Wednesday. The G7’s strategy involves “front loading” the loans to provide Ukraine with a substantial sum immediately, a move partly aimed at mitigating the risk of reduced US support if Trump wins the presidency.
European leaders’ alarm was triggered this week after Trump selected Senator J.D. Vance, an opponent of military aid to Ukraine, as his vice-presidential candidate. Vance has warned that Europe will need to become more self-reliant in defense matters. Trump’s past comments, suggesting he would not protect countries failing to meet NATO defense spending targets and potentially encouraging Russian aggression, have drawn sharp criticism from Western officials.
Germany has faced its own criticism for repeatedly missing NATO’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP. The German armed forces, already weakened by decades of underinvestment, have seen further depletion of their stocks due to arms supplies to Ukraine. Notably, Berlin has donated three Patriot air defense units to Kyiv, reducing Germany’s own Patriot systems to nine.
Despite the cut in military aid to Ukraine, Germany plans to comply with NATO’s defense spending target in 2025, allocating a total of 75.3 billion euros. Chancellor Olaf Scholz had announced a “Zeitenwende” – a historic turning point – following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with a 100 billion euro special fund to bolster the military. From this special fund, 22 billion euros will be allocated to defense, in addition to 53.3 billion euros in the regular budget.
However, the increase falls short of the amount sought by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who had requested an additional 6.7 billion euros. Consequently, the defense ministry will be forced to make significant cuts, including reducing ammunition orders by more than half and cutting procurement and research and development budgets.
The 2025 budget is accompanied by mid-term financial planning until 2028, the year when the armed forces’ special fund is expected to be exhausted. The plan identifies a gap of 39 billion euros in the regular budget, with 28 billion euros needed to comply with NATO targets without the special fund.
Decisions on how to address this shortfall are unlikely to be made until after the 2025 election. Ingo Gaedechens, a member of the parliament’s budget committee from the conservative opposition party CDU, criticized the coalition government, stating, “The 80 billion euros that have been put on display for 2028 simply do not exist. The coalition is not even trying to cover this up but are openly admitting it.”
Source: Reuters