In Zimbabwe’s shifting political landscape, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga is emerging as a figure of substantial, if not divisive, ambition. Despite lacking a significant social base within the ruling Zanu PF party and limited direct appeal on the broader national stage, Chiwenga appears to be orchestrating a carefully calibrated strategy to position himself as a powerful successor in the country’s leadership. His trajectory is a testament to the lingering influence of the military in Zimbabwean politics, a legacy dating back to his lengthy tenure as the commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces.
By Daniel Marovanyanga
Chiwenga’s approach to consolidating power is not based on mass mobilization or charismatic appeal but rather on a calculated use of institutional and military influence. Having commanded the military for approximately 15 years, Chiwenga has deep-rooted connections in Zimbabwe’s armed forces, which remain an influential institution in both politics and society. These connections provide him with a distinct advantage in a country where the military’s influence is as critical to political survival as popular support.
Building Power Through the Military
The core of Chiwenga’s power base lies in the military, a force he helped shape and command for over a decade. During his time as commander, Chiwenga played a central role in appointing key military personnel, creating a network of allies who now occupy strategic positions. This network extends from top commanders to other high-ranking officers in both the Zimbabwe National Army and the Zimbabwe Republic Police. Many of these commanders owe their positions to Chiwenga’s influence, forming a loyal bloc that could act as a powerful force in his bid for greater political clout.
His strategy has recently included the appointment of critical allies to significant roles within the military. For example, recent promotions of officers perceived to be loyal to him suggest that Chiwenga is fortifying his military influence, making it clear that his path to power is fortified by the presence of military allies in crucial positions. In a context where the military’s endorsement can be a deciding factor for political authority, Chiwenga’s manoeuvres indicate a clear intent to retain military leverage even in his political role.
Institutional and Bureaucratic Influence
Beyond his military ties, Chiwenga has amassed substantial bureaucratic influence within the government. His position as Vice President provides him access to Zimbabwe’s vast government structures, which are integral to the ruling Zanu PF’s hold on power. From controlling various state institutions to directing the operations of multiple ministries, his role allows him to wield influence over Zimbabwe’s political machinery, indirectly bolstering his standing within Zanu PF’s factions.
In addition, Chiwenga holds sway over provincial leaders and local councils, where his connections have been strategically nurtured over the years. This web of bureaucratic control provides him with a means of exerting influence across Zimbabwe, especially in rural areas, where Zanu PF has traditionally drawn much of its support. By cementing his standing within these government structures, Chiwenga strengthens his foothold not only within Zanu PF but also on a broader administrative level, an advantage that could prove crucial in any future bid for power.
Factionalism and Timing in Zanu PF
Chiwenga’s consolidation of power also benefits from the factional nature of Zanu PF itself. President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who took power after the ousting of Robert Mugabe in 2017, faces factional challenges within his party, with competing interests and divisions weakening his control. Chiwenga has been strategically positioning himself as a factional leader, gathering support from those within Zanu PF who may be disillusioned with Mnangagwa’s leadership. This factional support acts as an important layer of political capital, allowing Chiwenga to navigate the complex power dynamics of Zanu PF with careful manoeuvring.
Additionally, his approach includes an element of strategic timing. By patiently waiting and selectively asserting his influence, Chiwenga has avoided overt confrontations that could undermine his position, opting instead for a subtler approach that keeps his ambitions under the radar. His patience and planning reflect a strategic foresight that makes him a formidable figure in the political chess game unfolding in Zimbabwe.
Exploiting Mnangagwa’s Weaknesses
Perhaps most crucial to Chiwenga’s strategy is his ability to exploit the weaknesses of President Mnangagwa’s administration. Despite his initial popularity following the ousting of Mugabe, Mnangagwa has faced criticism over economic challenges, corruption, and a failure to deliver meaningful reforms. High inflation, unemployment, and widespread poverty have created a landscape of disillusionment, diminishing Mnangagwa’s standing both within the ruling party and among the general populace. Chiwenga has capitalised on this growing disenchantment, positioning himself as a figure capable of providing stability, with a track record of military discipline and order.
Moreover, Chiwenga has been careful to leverage these weaknesses subtly. Rather than directly challenging Mnangagwa, he has allowed the president’s own failures to create a political vacuum that Chiwenga’s steady, military-backed approach can fill. By presenting himself as a stabilising force in the face of Mnangagwa’s perceived inadequacies, Chiwenga is gradually positioning himself as an inevitable choice for those within Zanu PF and the military seeking a more controlled, disciplined governance style.
The Role of Political Contingency
While Chiwenga’s path to power seems almost certain, the outcome is not entirely predetermined. Political contingencies—unexpected events or shifts in Zimbabwe’s political dynamics—could derail his ambitions. For example, the possibility of public resistance or rising opposition could alter the power calculus. Additionally, if Mnangagwa takes decisive action to consolidate his position, such as by curbing Chiwenga’s influence or forging new alliances, the Vice President’s ascent could be impeded. However, given Mnangagwa’s current position and the challenges he faces, these contingencies may be unlikely, leaving Chiwenga in a favourable position to continue his political climb.
Conclusion
Vice President Chiwenga’s path to power represents a sophisticated blend of military influence, institutional control, and strategic patience. By drawing upon his extensive military background, wielding his bureaucratic influence, and exploiting factional divides, Chiwenga has carefully positioned himself as a formidable political force in Zimbabwe. His ambition is a reminder of the enduring power of the military within Zimbabwe’s political system, as well as the ongoing factional tensions within Zanu PF.
As Zimbabwe watches these developments unfold, Chiwenga’s manoeuvres underscore the complexities of succession and power within the country’s political landscape. Should he continue on this trajectory, his path to power could redefine Zimbabwe’s leadership and reshape its political future.