Zimbabwe’s currency experiment with the ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold) is rapidly deteriorating. Since its inception in April, the ZiG has seen a substantial decline in value, especially in the black market, where its exchange rate against the US dollar ranges from 18 to 26—far worse than the official exchange rate of 13.95. This sharp drop in value has raised significant concerns about the viability of the new currency and the broader state of Zimbabwe’s economy.
By Crispus Nyaga
Lack of Confidence Among Consumers and Businesses
One of the fundamental reasons behind the ZiG’s struggle is the lack of confidence among Zimbabweans, both consumers and businesses. Over the past two decades, Zimbabweans have been burned repeatedly by the collapse of their national currency. A notorious example is the hyperinflationary crisis under Robert Mugabe’s regime when the government resorted to printing vast amounts of money to cover deficits. This led to the Zimbabwean dollar losing nearly all its value, eroding people’s savings and decimating the trust in the local currency.
The failure of the RTGS Zimbabwe dollar, which depreciated by more than 80% within months of its launch, only reinforced these fears. Convincing Zimbabweans to adopt the ZiG, after seeing such rapid collapses in their currency, is a difficult task. Many have turned to the US dollar or even cryptocurrency as more stable alternatives.
Zimbabwe’s Struggling Economy
The ZiG’s struggles are compounded by the fact that Zimbabwe’s economy is in dire straits. A prolonged drought has significantly damaged the country’s agricultural output, which has long been one of its economic pillars. The government’s drastic decision to kill elephants to feed the population is an indication of the scale of the crisis.
Compounding these challenges is the likely failure of the tobacco crop, a major source of foreign currency for the country. With less tobacco to export, Zimbabwe will face further pressure on its already high demand for US dollars. While the recent surge in gold prices offers a glimmer of hope—Zimbabwe being one of the world’s top gold producers—the nation’s broader economic instability continues to weigh down the ZiG.
Dependence on the US Dollar
The reality is that Zimbabwe remains heavily dependent on the US dollar, even as the central bank and government push for a transition to the ZiG. Currently, over 60% of all transactions in Zimbabwe are conducted in US dollars, and most businesses and shops that accept the ZiG quickly convert it to US dollars to preserve the value of their sales.
This dependence on the dollar creates a significant obstacle to the ZiG’s adoption. While the government has ambitious plans to fully transition to the ZiG by 2030, the current trend suggests that the public may continue to favour the stability of the US dollar, especially in an economy as volatile as Zimbabwe’s.
An Untested and Risky Currency Experiment
A final key factor undermining the ZiG is its untested nature. Unlike other currencies that are pegged directly to a major currency, the ZiG derives its value from a combination of US dollars and gold reserves. The Zimbabwean government has indicated that it will not resort to printing more money to fund its budget, a move that would likely devalue the ZiG further. However, the ability of the central bank to manage this experiment remains uncertain.
Countries in similar situations, like Namibia and Eswatini, peg their currencies to the South African rand, ensuring greater stability through predictable exchange rates. Zimbabwe’s decision to take a different approach with the ZiG introduces a level of uncertainty that may deter investors and everyday users alike. Questions also linger about whether the Zimbabwean central bank has enough resources to intervene in the forex market to stabilize the currency when needed.
Conclusion
The ZiG faces a deeply uncertain future. While the government’s intentions to stabilize the economy through this new currency are clear, the reality on the ground presents formidable challenges. With consumer confidence low, an economy struggling under the weight of a prolonged drought, and overwhelming reliance on the US dollar, Zimbabwe’s ZiG experiment is on shaky ground. Unless major structural changes are made to restore confidence and stabilize the economy, the ZiG may follow the path of its predecessors—collapsing under the weight of economic instability and public distrust.
This was first published here by the Invezz.