HARARE – Zimbabwe’s economy is showing signs of recovery, despite facing one of the worst droughts in decades and a prolonged exclusion from capital markets following a debt default in 1999, according to Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube.
In an interview with Bloomberg TV in Johannesburg on Thursday, Ncube expressed optimism for the nation’s economic trajectory, projecting a 2% growth rate for 2024, up from a 7% contraction in 2019.
“We’ve learned to manage our affairs properly and are now living within our means, and it’s showing,” said Ncube. He highlighted that the government’s fiscal discipline has resulted in a budget deficit of just 1.4% of GDP, one of the lowest in recent years.
Economic Resilience Amid Drought
The current growth forecast comes as Zimbabwe grapples with a crippling drought induced by the El Niño climate phenomenon, which has severely impacted agricultural production across southern Africa. Zimbabwe, along with Zambia and Malawi, is among the worst-hit, with subsistence farmers losing approximately three-quarters of the nation’s corn crop, which relies heavily on rainfall. However, commercial farmers with access to irrigation have managed a strong wheat harvest, with nearly 600,000 metric tons produced this year.
“We’re going to be self-sufficient for wheat,” Ncube said, adding that surplus wheat will be exported. He also noted that an agricultural insurance program is planned to expand by 2025 to cover more farmers, aiming to build resilience against future droughts. Zimbabwe received $32 million this year from the African Union’s climate insurance agency as part of a broader $60 million drought-relief initiative.
Currency and Debt Strategy
Zimbabwe’s bullion-backed currency, introduced in April, has shown stability amid challenging economic conditions. Ncube affirmed that the long-term goal is for this currency to eventually become the country’s sole legal tender. “One day, when the time is right, we plan for this to be our only currency,” Ncube said, outlining the government’s roadmap toward currency independence.
Addressing Zimbabwe’s external debt, Ncube disclosed plans to hold a debt-restructuring meeting on November 25, aiming to address the $21 billion owed to international creditors. Talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are also scheduled for next year to explore a staff-monitored program that would facilitate Zimbabwe’s debt restructuring. “The debt has become an economic albatross, and we are committed to finding a viable solution,” said Ncube.
Positive External Balances
For the sixth consecutive year, Zimbabwe has reported a current account surplus, which Ncube claims has bolstered currency stability and external financial confidence. “This surplus is key, as it signals that our external balances are stable and pose no risk to the currency’s fundamentals,” he said.
Outlook and Regional Impact
As Zimbabwe continues its recovery, its economic trajectory is being closely watched within the region. The upcoming debt-restructuring talks are anticipated to pave the way for renewed engagement with international capital markets, which could mark a turning point in Zimbabwe’s economic landscape.
The Finance Minister’s optimism is reflected in ongoing policy efforts to stabilise the economy and support agricultural production, a critical sector for Zimbabwe’s rural population. With expanded agricultural insurance and strategic debt management, Zimbabwe’s leaders hope to mitigate the impact of future climate shocks and create a more sustainable economic future.
The government remains focused on ensuring that fiscal and monetary policies promote growth while reducing reliance on external assistance, signalling a shift toward self-sufficiency in food production and a stronger presence in international trade.