Contrary to speculation, Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga will not be automatically elevated to the presidency. Instead, the party will choose its next leader through a democratic process, according to Zanu PF spokesperson Chris Mutsvangwa.
“Zanu PF is committed to a democratic process in selecting its leader,” Mutsvangwa stated to a local Sunday news publication, underscoring that the party will convene a congress to elect Mnangagwa’s successor. This announcement has set the stage for a fierce internal contest among key players vying for the top position.
Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, a former general who played a pivotal role in ousting Robert Mugabe in 2017, remains a prominent contender. His military background and influence within the security forces provide him with a significant power base. However, his ascension is not guaranteed, as other influential figures within the party are also positioning themselves.
One such figure is Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube, a technocrat and reformist known for his economic expertise. Ncube has been instrumental in implementing economic reforms aimed at stabilizing Zimbabwe’s economy. His technocratic approach and international experience make him a strong candidate, particularly among those who believe in modernizing Zimbabwe’s governance.
Another potential successor is Foreign Affairs Minister Frederick Shava, who brings a wealth of diplomatic experience and has strong ties to international stakeholders. Shava’s global perspective and connections could be advantageous in navigating Zimbabwe’s foreign relations, especially with key economic partners like China and Russia.
The military’s role in Zanu PF’s succession battles cannot be understated. The Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) have historically played a crucial role in the country’s political landscape. Their support was pivotal in Mnangagwa’s rise to power, and their influence will likely be a determining factor in the upcoming succession process. Chiwenga’s military ties could either bolster his bid for the presidency or create friction within the ranks if the military leadership is divided in its support.
Political analyst Pedzisai Ruhanya noted, “The military’s involvement in Zimbabwean politics has always been significant. Chiwenga’s military background gives him an edge, but it also means he must navigate complex relationships within the military establishment.”
China and Russia, both having significant economic interests in Zimbabwe, are closely monitoring the succession process. China’s investments in Zimbabwe’s infrastructure and mining sectors make it a key player in the country’s economic future. Similarly, Russia’s involvement in Zimbabwe’s mining industry, particularly in platinum and diamond mining, positions it as a crucial stakeholder.
Both nations have a vested interest in ensuring a stable and favourable political environment in Zimbabwe. Their influence could manifest in various ways, from diplomatic pressure to economic incentives aimed at swaying the succession outcome in favor of candidates who align with their interests.
Political analyst Flexi Mugadza commented, “China and Russia will undoubtedly try to influence the succession to protect their investments. Their economic stakes in Zimbabwe mean they prefer stability and continuity in policies favourable to their interests.”
Zimbabwe’s political landscape is also shaped by tribal dynamics, with the two major ethnic groups, the Shona and the Ndebele, playing significant roles. Mnangagwa, a member of the Karanga subgroup of the Shona, has enjoyed broad support within this community. Chiwenga, also from the Shona ethnic group, may leverage this commonality to consolidate support.
However, the Ndebele minority’s representation and interests will also be a critical factor. Balancing tribal interests and ensuring inclusive governance will be essential for maintaining national unity and stability. Candidates perceived as capable of bridging tribal divides may gain an advantage in the succession race.
Ruhanya added, “Tribal considerations have always been a part of Zimbabwean politics. Any candidate who can navigate these complexities and present themselves as a unifying figure will have a significant advantage.”
As Zimbabwe approaches the end of President Mnangagwa’s final term, the Zanu PF succession battle is poised to shape the country’s political future. With key players like Chiwenga, Ncube, and Shava in the fray, and the significant influence of the military, external forces, and tribal dynamics, the path to leadership in Zimbabwe is complex and multifaceted. The upcoming congress will not only determine the next leader of Zanu PF but will also set the direction for Zimbabwe’s political and economic trajectory in the years to come.