Harare, Zimbabwe – The Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI) has warned that the ruling Zanu-PF party is facing its most precarious moment since the 2008 general elections due to internal factional conflicts and doubts about President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s plans to step down in 2028.
While Mnangagwa has publicly committed to leaving office at the end of his second term in 2028, concerns are rising among critics and political observers about efforts from some of his loyalists to extend his presidency to 2030. This division has sparked two primary factions within Zanu-PF: one pushing for the extension of Mnangagwa’s rule, and another urging him to respect the constitutional term limit.
A report from ZDI, titled “Entering the Foggy Zone: Transition and Succession,” sheds light on this escalating factional tension within Zanu-PF. Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga has spoken out against the glorification of individual leaders, emphasizing the need to prioritize national values over personal ambition. His remarks are seen as an indirect challenge to Mnangagwa’s leadership, revealing deeper fractures within the party.
The ZDI report draws comparisons to Zanu-PF’s vulnerable position during the 2008 elections, a period marked by internal disunity and significant electoral challenges. “Elite disunity over succession issues suggests that Zanu-PF is at its most precarious since 2008, especially after the 2023 elections, which were widely criticized by SADC, the AU, and the EU for manipulation,” the report says.
Drawing on historical analysis of authoritarian regimes, ZDI highlights that internal splits between hard-liners and reformers often play a key role in political transitions. The report suggests that Zimbabwe’s current political climate, with Zanu-PF fragmented over Mnangagwa’s succession, could be laying the groundwork for potential democratic shifts.
Despite these internal struggles, Zanu-PF continues to maintain control through the suppression of opposition parties. The report points to the destruction of the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) and the controversial recalls of opposition MPs as part of Zanu-PF’s strategy to weaken credible threats to its rule. Sengezo Tshabangu, who has declared himself CCC secretary-general, has been instrumental in further fracturing the opposition, the report notes.
The ZDI report also emphasizes the significant role the military continues to play in shaping Zimbabwe’s political transitions. “The military has historically been a pivotal force in Zimbabwe’s political transitions, and it remains a key player in determining Mnangagwa’s successor,” the report asserts.
As Zimbabwe moves closer to the end of Mnangagwa’s presidency, the growing factionalism within Zanu-PF will likely have a critical impact on the party’s future and the broader political landscape of the country.
Source: Newshawks