Mnangagwa’s Term Extension Raises Concerns – US. Think-Tank

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HARARE – Zimbabwe’s political landscape is fraught with uncertainty as internal divisions within the ruling ZANU-PF party intensify over President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s potential bid for a third term.

Despite Mnangagwa’s repeated public assurances that he does not intend to extend his presidency beyond the constitutional two-term limit, recent developments suggest otherwise.

According to a report by the American think-tank, The Robert Lansing Institute, a resolution passed at ZANU-PF’s Annual People’s Conference in October advocated for extending Mnangagwa’s leadership beyond 2028, when his current term is set to end.

The move, while supported by some party factions, has reportedly faced opposition from key stakeholders, including the military and war veterans, raising questions about internal party cohesion and the implications for Zimbabwe’s future.

The think-tank outlines several potential paths Mnangagwa might take to secure a third term, including constitutional amendments, judicial interpretations, and leveraging internal party dynamics to suppress dissent. However, each approach carries significant risks.

Amending the constitution to remove term limits, for instance, would likely face legal challenges, public resistance, and international criticism. Using the judiciary to reinterpret term limits could erode public trust in the independence of Zimbabwe’s courts while relying on ZANU-PF’s internal mechanisms might deepen divisions within the party.

The report highlights the broader consequences of a third-term bid, warning that such a move could undermine Zimbabwe’s democratic institutions and constitutional integrity. Removing term limits, it argues, would weaken a key safeguard against authoritarianism and set a dangerous precedent for future leaders. The consolidation of power in the executive branch could marginalise other institutions, such as the judiciary and parliament, further eroding the country’s democratic framework.

Public reaction to the possibility of a third term is also a significant factor. Zimbabweans, already burdened by economic hardships and political instability, may view the move as a betrayal of democratic principles. This could result in widespread protests, particularly in urban areas and among younger populations, who have grown increasingly disillusioned with the government’s performance.

Internationally, Mnangagwa’s pursuit of a third term could isolate Zimbabwe further. Western democracies may view the move as a retreat from democratic norms, potentially leading to sanctions and reduced foreign investment. However, the report notes that key international players such as China, Russia, and the UAE might back Mnangagwa’s continued rule to protect their economic and strategic interests in Zimbabwe.

The Robert Lansing Institute emphasises that these developments have implications beyond Zimbabwe’s borders. If Mnangagwa succeeds in extending his presidency, it could embolden other leaders in Southern Africa to challenge democratic norms, undermining political stability across the region.

As ZANU-PF’s 21st Annual Conference continues to deliberate on leadership matters, the nation watches closely. The decisions made in these discussions will not only determine Mnangagwa’s political future but also shape Zimbabwe’s democratic trajectory and its standing in the international community.