A fresh political rupture may be brewing in Zimbabwe, and this time, it could be far more chaotic than the military-assisted transition that toppled Robert Mugabe in 2017.
So warns respected Zimbabwean academic and author Blessing-Miles Tendi, whose latest book, The Overthrow of Robert Mugabe: Gender, Coups and Diplomats, peels back the layers of intrigue, fractured loyalties, and unresolved power struggles that continue to haunt Zimbabwe’s ruling elite.
At the heart of his analysis is a chilling mystery that has long cast a shadow over Zimbabwe’s military establishment — the attempted assassination of Air Marshal Perrance Shiri in 2008 — and the implications it had, and still has, on the internal cohesion of the security forces.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who rose to power on the back of military support in 2017, is now facing growing dissent from the same constituency that helped him ascend: the liberation war veterans.
This influential group, Tendi writes, has thrown its weight behind Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga, calling for Mnangagwa’s resignation due to rampant corruption and economic failure under his watch. They also accuse him of attempting to overstay his tenure by plotting to extend his rule beyond 2028 — in violation of the constitutional two-term limit.
While rumours swirl that the military may once again be ready to intervene, Tendi warns that unlike in 2017, there is no longer a unified command within the armed forces. Instead, lingering mistrust and factionalism — some of it rooted in the still-unresolved Shiri shooting — have fractured the upper ranks.
Tendi reopens the file on the mysterious shooting of Perrance Shiri on 13 December 2008 — a moment he believes exposed deep internal fault lines within Zimbabwe’s military elite.
That night, as Shiri drove alone to his farm along a dimly lit gravel road, he came under a hail of bullets from unidentified gunmen lying in wait. Despite being wounded, he managed to escape and reach a medical facility. What followed, according to Tendi, sent shockwaves through the defence establishment.
Shiri’s confidant, Major-General Paradzayi Zimondi, was the first to arrive. But when another senior military officer turned up uninvited — seemingly aware of the assassination attempt before any public disclosure — suspicions deepened.
The recovery of bullet casings and cartridges from Zimbabwe Defence Industries, a state-run arms manufacturer, indicated that the shooters were likely insiders. Yet no one was ever arrested or prosecuted. For Tendi, this marked the start of a new era of paranoia, distrust, and rivalries within the military — cracks that remain today.
Tendi argues that the events surrounding Shiri’s shooting offer a lens into the current power dynamics at play. While Chiwenga is said to enjoy support from certain quarters of the security forces, he does not command universal loyalty. Unlike in 2017, where there was a consensus to remove Mugabe, today’s climate is marked by multiple centres of power, personal vendettas, and unhealed grievances.
“The military no longer speaks with one voice,” Tendi writes. “The very idea of another coup raises the spectre of a fragmented intervention — less disciplined, more violent, and potentially open to foreign influence or civil unrest.”
The implication is stark: should another coup attempt emerge, it could be messier, bloodier, and far more destabilising than the last.
Tendi’s new book contends that Mugabe’s removal was never the clean break it appeared to be. The failure to reconcile or even investigate past betrayals — such as the Shiri incident — has created an unstable foundation for Zimbabwe’s future leadership.
With discontent rising and the economic crisis deepening, Zimbabwe stands at a crossroads. The fractures laid bare by Tendi’s research suggest that any move to unseat Mnangagwa could tear through the very fabric of the state, unless decisive steps are taken to restore cohesion and constitutional order.
As Zimbabwe marks eight years since Mugabe’s fall, Tendi’s warning rings clear: another coup is possible — but this time, it may not come with a triumphant march through the streets, but a dangerous lurch into the unknown.
