Zimbabwe is set to host the 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF 29) this month, where over 150 climate experts from the 16 SADC member states will gather to generate a forecast for the 2024-2025 rainfall season in the region.
The forum will take place against the backdrop of Zimbabwe also hosting the 44th SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government on August 17, under the theme: “Promoting Innovation to Unlock Opportunities for Sustained Economic Growth and Development Towards an Industrialised SADC.”
Ms. Tambu Pasipanodya, Deputy Director of the Meteorological Services Department, announced that a series of meetings will commence on August 19 and run until August 30, culminating in the release of the seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast for the 2024-2025 cropping season. The meetings will include a climate experts gathering from August 19-25, the SARCOF 29 Forum from August 26-28, the 6th SADC ClimSA PMC steering committee meeting on August 29, and the SADC Sub-Committee (SCOM) meeting for directors of national meteorological services on August 29-30.
“The 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum is a key event for enhancing climate resilience in the SADC region,” said Ms. Pasipanodya. “These forums are crucial for providing accurate and actionable climate forecasts as well as fostering regional collaboration in the field of climate science.”
SARCOF 29 will offer a vital platform for stakeholders across the SADC region to discuss climate trends, share forecasts, and consider their implications. A seasonal climate outlook is essential for helping SADC countries prepare for the varying climate conditions that the region, known for its vulnerability to climate change and variability, might experience.
In addition to forecasting the upcoming season, climate and weather experts will also review the previous rainfall season. Early signals from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other global weather agencies suggest that a La Niña weather event may develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year, potentially bringing wetter conditions to Zimbabwe and other southern African countries during the 2024-2025 cropping season. However, a clearer picture will emerge once experts convene and reach a consensus.
Southern Africa is currently grappling with the worst drought in years, attributed to an El Niño event—characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean—which has triggered extreme weather events globally, including severe droughts, wildfires, heatwaves, and flooding.
The impact of the drought has been devastating across the region. Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi have declared droughts as national disasters, with millions of people requiring food assistance. In Zimbabwe alone, official figures show that 6 million people in rural areas and 1.7 million in urban centers need food aid. Zambia has seen 6.6 million people affected, while Malawi struggles with the aftermath of floods and droughts that have left about nine million people in need.
In response, SADC launched a US$5.5 billion regional humanitarian appeal in May to address the food needs of nearly 30 million people affected by the El Niño-induced drought and floods across southern Africa.
Ms. Pasipanodya emphasized that this year’s forum aims to improve forecast accuracy by integrating the latest modeling techniques and observational data to better inform decision-making processes. “Climate services are crucial for providing timely, accurate, and essential agro-climatic data to help communities adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change and variability,” she said.
Last season, much of Southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Angola, Mozambique, and Botswana, experienced significantly below-average rainfall, exacerbating food insecurity and malnutrition. The drought also severely impacted water supplies for domestic, industrial, and agricultural use, leading to reduced pasture availability for livestock and declining water levels at Lake Kariba, which has affected energy production, tourism, and livelihoods in the region.
As Zimbabwe prepares to host this critical climate forum, the focus will be on developing strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change and improve resilience across the SADC region. Agricultural experts have called for the implementation of risk-reduction measures, including promoting drought-tolerant crop varieties, expanding irrigation systems, and providing cash transfers to support farmers.
Source: Herald