HARARE – Food shortages affecting over half of Zimbabwe’s population are expected to persist during the lean season due to the delayed onset of rains and below-average precipitation in many parts of the country.
Large swathes of farmland have yet to receive meaningful rainfall, and prolonged high temperatures have rendered some crops beyond recovery. Many farmers have been forced to replant their fields, but financial constraints have left some without access to additional seed, further exacerbating the crisis.
The Meteorological Services Department has forecast normal to above-normal rains for the ongoing farming season, yet challenges persist. The World Food Programme (WFP) has reported that a transition to a weak La Niña phase later in 2024 could improve rainfall prospects, although uncertainties remain.
“The most recent short-term forecast points to drier conditions than normal in the short term, alluding to the need for increased alertness and monitoring,” the WFP noted.
Escalating Food Prices
The food crisis has been compounded by escalating maize prices. According to the WFP, maize grain remains unavailable in many monitored markets, with unrefined maize meal present in only about 95% of rural and urban markets.
Global food prices have also contributed to the crisis, with the FAO Food Price Index showing a 0.5% increase in November 2024, the largest month-on-month rise since April 2024.
Alarming Food Insecurity Levels
The Famine Early Warning System Network (FewsNet) has projected that Zimbabwe will experience Phase 3 food insecurity, classified as a crisis, from October 2024 to March 2025. This period, marked by the peak lean season, will see food assistance needs rise sharply.
Improvement in food security is anticipated during the April-May harvest, which is expected to shift conditions to a Stressed (IPC Phase 2) level in some areas.
Impact of Drought on Agriculture
The FAO has reported that the planting of summer 2025 cereal crops is expected to conclude this month. However, uneven rainfall distribution and drought earlier in 2024 have severely depleted soil moisture, particularly in the north-eastern provinces—key agricultural zones in Zimbabwe.
“These dry soil conditions may hinder and delay planting operations, especially with early December rainfall below average and forecasts indicating a high probability of continued low rainfall and above-average temperatures,” the FAO report stated.
Increased Import Needs
The low cereal harvest in 2024 has pushed Zimbabwe’s cereal import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year to an estimated 1.3 million tonnes, nearly double the five-year average. This import volume is expected to meet consumption needs and replenish depleted stocks.
Government Response
Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development Minister Anxious Masuka has described the drought as the worst since Zimbabwe’s independence, an anomaly driven by El Niño weather conditions characterized by low rainfall and high temperatures.
Masuka stated that the government is supporting approximately 12.74 million people, representing 83.4% of the population, in an effort to mitigate the impact of the crisis.
As Zimbabwe and the broader southern African region grapple with the aftermath of El Niño-induced drought, the situation remains dire, with food insecurity and agricultural challenges looming large.
