Spike in diesel consumption signals massive economic growth

Zimbabwe’s post-pandemic growth was strong, among the fastest across the African continent, driven in large part by private consumption, increased dollarisation and the informal sector
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ZIMBABWE’S diesel consumption has been on a steady increase in the last three years, reaching 1,12 billion litres in 2024, an indication of increased demand mainly from the mining sector and transport services, signalling that the economy is on a growth trajectory.

While one of the key factors influencing diesel consumption is the state of the country’s power supply, Zimbabwe has made strides in stabilising its electricity grid, resulting in reduced reliance on diesel generators for backup power by major economic actors.

Data released by the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA) shows that in 2023 consumption reached 1,07 billion litres from 1,04 billion litres in 2022.

On the other hand, petrol consumption reached 569 million litres in 2024 and was lower than 588 million litres in 2023.

ZERA chief executive officer Mr Edington Mazambani said the increase is an indication of the economy’s performance, with demand largely in the mining sector, where there has been a rebound in activities.

“Petrol actually came down in 2024, and diesel has increased. That is an indication that the economy, especially in the mining sector, had a huge demand for diesel in the commercial sector. Also, the activities, especially in the mining sector where a number of lithium mines are starting to export, hauling their products mainly by road,” he said.

Zimbabwe is currently experiencing a significant surge in lithium mining, ranking as the world’s sixth largest lithium producer, with production rapidly increasing due to its vast reserves of the mineral, considered the largest in Africa.

The boom is largely driven by Chinese investment and the growing global demand for lithium used in electric vehicle batteries and the need for reliable power sources for other electric gadgets.

The ZERA data shows that diesel consumption spiked largely in December to 116 264 758 from 114 172 082 in November and 99 475 091 in October.

Zimbabwe Truckers Association representative Mr Tinashe Skonkwani said in the past drought season, the trucking industry experienced a significant increase in activity.

“During the past drought season, the trucking industry experienced a notable increase in business as we played a crucial role in transporting food imports and distributions across the country.

“With local agricultural production severely affected, more goods had to be imported and moved to various regions, leading to a higher demand for our services.

“As a result, there was a significant rise in diesel consumption, reflecting the increased movement of trucks. This period highlighted the essential role of trucking in ensuring food security during crises,” he said.

Economic analyst Mr Namatai Maeresera highlighted the potential benefits of increased diesel consumption, noting that it signals heightened economic activity, particularly in key sectors like logistics and trade.

“As more trucks are deployed to transport essential goods, this could drive growth in related industries, including fuel supply, vehicle maintenance and employment within the transport sector.

“If managed efficiently, this surge in demand could contribute to broader economic stability, reinforcing the critical role of logistics in sustaining commerce and supply chain resilience,” he said.

The Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) has been working to enhance the reliability of the power grid, which has somewhat alleviated pressure on industries to depend on diesel.

The country’s energy supply has lately improved following the completion of the Hwange Units 7 and 8 project, which is now feeding 600 megawatts into the national grid.

Despite these improvements, load-shedding remains an intermittent challenge for some sectors. Industries, particularly those with high energy demands, continue to experience sporadic power cuts, necessitating the use of diesel generators to maintain production.

Nampak Zimbabwe said its unit Mega Pak, in the first quarter of 2025, faced intermittent power disruptions from ZESA, which led to increased operational costs and a rise in plant breakdowns, stemming from the resultant stop-start production process.

“This has negatively affected our efficiencies, and we have installed additional generator capacity to ensure more efficient operations going forward,” the company said.

The firm said the power challenges, especially at the Ruwa plant, limited the ability to fully meet customer demand.

Tanganda Tea Company said due to improved fleet management systems and use of green energy, total diesel usage declined by 7 percent from 1 003 288 litres in 2023 to 937 637 litres in 2024.

Petrol usage, however, increased by 8 percent over the same period due to increased mechanised harvesting.

Tanganda said its three main sources of power are Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC), solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and generators.

Economist Dr Prosper Chitambara said power outages resulted in a lot of households and businesses having to rely on backup systems, particularly generators.

“Given the challenges we have with electricity, it is expected that diesel consumption would increase because of economic agents having to seek recourse to generators as backup for the power outages,” he said.

Another economist, Mr Victor Bhoroma, said in some instances businesses have to continuously produce to meet their targets, hence resorting to diesel-powered generators.

“Looking at the annual reports for corporates, especially those in the retail sector, most of them consume diesel worth millions of dollars, obviously in order to stay afloat and in order to fund their business operations. That is the major reason there has been that increase,” he said.

There has also been serious investment in gold production in the country because of the boom in the price of the yellow metal on the global market, he added.

“Because of that, we have also seen that demand from the mining sector for electricity has gone up, meaning the mining sector is also consuming a lot of diesel in order to fund their operations.”

Investment analyst Mr Malone Gwadu said the increase could largely be attributable to the general increase in economic activity as energy is a key input for any economy to function well.

“Areas such as construction and infrastructure development, through its heavy equipment; agriculture, mainly powering irrigation to counter the El Niño effect; mining, as most mining companies raced to ramp up output to offset depressed commodity prices; and even general diesel consumption in the country.

“But over and above this, the electricity deficit currently prevalent also triggered increased demand for diesel-powered electricity generators, thereby pushing up consumption of diesel,” he said. – Sunday Mail