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Robert Mugabe

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HARARE, - The swearing-in of Zimbabwe's former opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai as prime minister on Wednesday still leaves the question of how well he can work with old rival President Robert Mugabe to save the ruined country.

Here are possible scenarios for the new administration:

NEW POWER STRUGGLE

* A new power struggle could paralyse a government charged with easing the world's highest inflation rate and severe food and fuel shortages and rescuing a virtually worthless local currency.

* The fact that the two old rivals have got as far as this indicates their susceptibility to regional pressure as well as the dangers of total meltdown in Zimbabwe.

* However the months of squabbling over posts in the new government have raised concerns that this will simply continue at the government level.

* Mugabe is regarded as one of the craftiest political operators in Africa and could easily find ways to undermine Tsvangirai, a fiery former union leader who has grassroots support but little of Mugabe's skill in pulling the strings of government.

* New deadlock would hinder formation of a democratic government and bold economic reforms such as reversing policies aimed at nationalising mines and banks. 

* That would keep already sceptical foreign investors and Western donors away, depriving the country of millions of dollars of aid. But if that money fails to come in, Mugabe could hold that against Tsvangirai and say it means his government has failed.

SMOOTH START

* Doubts will still hang over a joint administration even if Mugabe and Tsvangirai surprise the world by starting to work together smoothly.

* Analysts say they have chosen political allies, not economists or technocrats who command international respect, for their cabinet teams, running the risk of further mismanagement that could bring further economic decline.

* While Tsvangirai has earned wide respect at home and abroad for standing up against human rights abuses and corruption, he has not spelled out plans to salvage the economy.

* There is no sign he would try to reverse policies such as Mugabe's seizures of white owned farms to give to landless blacks, which the president's critics blame for Zimbabwe's ruin. He blames Western sanctions.

* Donors are ready to provide hundreds of millions of dollars to help Zimbabwe get back on its feet, but the money available now is not as great as it might have been before the global financial crisis struck.

* Like donors, investors will take a cautious approach in the hope of seeing real change in Zimbabwe. But if change happens, Zimbabwe is seen as a great opportunity for investment in everything from mining to agriculture to telecoms. * Millions of Zimbabweans who fled the suffering, many of them well-educated and skilled, will also be watching closely to see if the new leadership can deliver. If they stay abroad, regional economies will be further strained and southern African leaders will come under renewed pressure to help Zimbabwe.

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